The Cincinnati Factor

When Bob Graham governed Florida he loved to talk about the "Cincinnati factor" in Florida politics--referring to the pool of snowbirds and other quasi-residents in condo complexes from Broward County to Santa Rosa County who care about their true home in the Rust Belt more than their sometime digs in the Sun Belt. They include the retirees. Their influence is weakest in north Florida, the most conservative part of the state, and strongest in South Florida.

Most pundits say that Midwesterners favor Sarasota and Ft. Myers; Northeastern transplants settle in Ft. Lauderdale and West Palm Beach.

Rudy Giuliani seems to be counting on the Cincinnati factor in Florida working for him on January 29. We'll see.