North Carolina Surprise

The latest polling puts Kay Hagan ahead of Elizabeth Dole again in the U.S. Senate race in NC. I think Obama's massive cash investment and voter registration in the state is paying dividends down the ballot.

Revised and Final Election Prediction

In light of recent data, it's time to tighten up my predictions. I think things have gotten so bad economically and campaigns have played out in such a way that we can turn a few more states blue on the electoral map.

I predict Obama will win the Kerry states plus New Mexico, Iowa, Colorado, Nevada, Ohio, and Virginia--effecting an electoral college landslide and a popular vote margin larger than 5 million.

The Chiles-Hagan Connection

Reporting on State Senator Kay Hagan's time interning on Capitol Hill in the 1970s while her uncle, Lawton Chiles, began his first term in the U.S. Senate. Now, Hagan fights out a nail-biting Senate race in North Carolina. This races changes week by week and Obama's weight at the ticket could just push her over the top, among other factors.