Budget Season

It's state budget season again!

How silly a thing to say--it never ends. My study of mid-cycle adjustments in Maryland and Virginia this year is providing grist for the writing mill in the Senate chapters. From low-response expenditure side maneuvers like hiring freezes and one-day furloughs to big-ticket transformation like "right-sizing" government Chiles-style, it's a heady time for many a budget analyst.

The Bush I recession, or whatever you call the 1991 national economic downturn, was a bump in the road compared to our current fifty-car pileup.

Here is how Maryland Governor Martin O'Malley (D) is dealing with the situation, for example.

Wall Street

I've mentioned the film Wall Street before I think, but the lessons from it bear repeating now especially. One of my favorite scenes in all of cinema is what you might call "The Meltdown Scene." Bud Fox, played by Charlie Sheen, stops on the street, breathless after watching Gordon Gekko strip Bluestar Airlines apart bit by bit. The camera moves back physically as it focuses in on his face twisting in disgust. He has betrayed his real father and his "father-in-devil's-clothing" has betrayed him. As in all good movies, the memorable scrape at your pysche happens when the protagonist--who you care about--stops charging forward for once and just lets his self-doubt put wrinkles on his face. The musical cue is a nice choice, too.

I think it's this sort of tone that I'd love to capture in my chapter on Chiles' retirement from the U.S. Senate. The subject and circumstances are drastically different, but not the layers of remorse, guilt, confusion, and self-doubt that open up for us to see.

Come to think of it, I think anyone who got laid off by Enron probably had a similar feeling as Bud--probably worse. The examples are endless.

Of course, in Chiles' world, the chicanery is political and corporate.

North Carolina Surprise

The latest polling puts Kay Hagan ahead of Elizabeth Dole again in the U.S. Senate race in NC. I think Obama's massive cash investment and voter registration in the state is paying dividends down the ballot.

Revised and Final Election Prediction

In light of recent data, it's time to tighten up my predictions. I think things have gotten so bad economically and campaigns have played out in such a way that we can turn a few more states blue on the electoral map.

I predict Obama will win the Kerry states plus New Mexico, Iowa, Colorado, Nevada, Ohio, and Virginia--effecting an electoral college landslide and a popular vote margin larger than 5 million.

The Chiles-Hagan Connection

Reporting on State Senator Kay Hagan's time interning on Capitol Hill in the 1970s while her uncle, Lawton Chiles, began his first term in the U.S. Senate. Now, Hagan fights out a nail-biting Senate race in North Carolina. This races changes week by week and Obama's weight at the ticket could just push her over the top, among other factors.

Election Predictions

For the good of the order, a presidential election prediction...

Obama wins all the Kerry states plus Colorado, Iowa, and New Mexico and becomes the next president of the United States.

I also project that mistakes in my prediction would favor Obama. He might also carry Ohio, Nevada, and Virginia--guaranteeing an electoral college landslide and a popular vote win, as well as building a strong case for the kind of enduring, demographics-fueled Democratic majority described in The Emerging Democratic Majority by John Judis and Ruy Teixeira.

Book Progress

The book has stalled for the moment because of some logistical hurdles that I will soon jump over. Once research and writing revs up again, expect more text than pictures as I analyze and complete the last of the interviews.

Thanks for your patience.