North Carolina Surprise

The latest polling puts Kay Hagan ahead of Elizabeth Dole again in the U.S. Senate race in NC. I think Obama's massive cash investment and voter registration in the state is paying dividends down the ballot.

Revised and Final Election Prediction

In light of recent data, it's time to tighten up my predictions. I think things have gotten so bad economically and campaigns have played out in such a way that we can turn a few more states blue on the electoral map.

I predict Obama will win the Kerry states plus New Mexico, Iowa, Colorado, Nevada, Ohio, and Virginia--effecting an electoral college landslide and a popular vote margin larger than 5 million.

The Chiles-Hagan Connection

Reporting on State Senator Kay Hagan's time interning on Capitol Hill in the 1970s while her uncle, Lawton Chiles, began his first term in the U.S. Senate. Now, Hagan fights out a nail-biting Senate race in North Carolina. This races changes week by week and Obama's weight at the ticket could just push her over the top, among other factors.

Election Predictions

For the good of the order, a presidential election prediction...

Obama wins all the Kerry states plus Colorado, Iowa, and New Mexico and becomes the next president of the United States.

I also project that mistakes in my prediction would favor Obama. He might also carry Ohio, Nevada, and Virginia--guaranteeing an electoral college landslide and a popular vote win, as well as building a strong case for the kind of enduring, demographics-fueled Democratic majority described in The Emerging Democratic Majority by John Judis and Ruy Teixeira.

Book Progress

The book has stalled for the moment because of some logistical hurdles that I will soon jump over. Once research and writing revs up again, expect more text than pictures as I analyze and complete the last of the interviews.

Thanks for your patience.

In Memoriam: Jim Krog

Jim Krog, all-star former chief of staff to Gov. Lawton Chiles, has died. I thoroughly enjoyed interviewing him and looking forward to rediscovering his intellectual riches as I analyze his thoughts on Hurricane Andrew, right-sizing government, and many other topics relevant to the book.

Rest in Peace, Mr. Krog.

Fatherhood Film: Revisited

I forgot a reference in The Departed which is actually quite important. Just as Colin sniffs out a whiff of paternal angst in Frank at the end, Queenan in my opinion becomes a sort of father figure for Billy Costigan. The 'do it for me' scene develops that bond, sure, but so does the more subtle scene in Queenan's kitchen. To me that's a key scene in the film as much as the chase sequences and Costello's one-liners.